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Probability vs. Likelihood: What's the Difference?

Learn the difference between probability and likelihood, read how AI helps doctors address serious health problems, and explore the Job Match Finder in this issue of The Data Drop

January 7, 2026
Data literacyNewsletterThe Data Drop
The Data Drop Newsletter
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Probability vs. likelihood: It's all about perspective

In everyday conversation, we use probability and likelihood as if they mean the same thing. In statistics, they don’t. The key difference is perspective.

Probability looks forward. You know the conditions and want to predict an outcome. You have two jars of cookies, one with more chocolate cookies than the other. What’s the probability you’ll pick a chocolate cookie?

Likelihood looks backward. You’ve already observed the outcome (you picked a chocolate cookie) and now you ask which explanation makes the most sense. How likely is it that the cookie came from the first jar versus the second?

Seeing the future: Predictive algorithms transform healthcare

The public debate around AI often turns to fears of a future where machines replace us and take over the world. The team around Dursun Delen, however, are using AI to build tools that help doctors address serious health problems  in healthcare-deprived rural locations. Read more in Seeing the Future.

An easier way to do data analytics (that you may have never tried)

Did you know you can use AI to find jobs? Avery Smith built a Job Match Finder to find your next job automatically. Learn how he did it and try the Job Match Finder yourself.

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